As climate change moves from theory to reality, the EU has focused on drafting policies for climate-resilient agriculture. Now that these policies have been adopted, the next mandate is responsible for implementing them. Will a potential right-wing Parliament hinder this progress?

Google “climate change” and you will be overwhelmed by futuristic images that showcase melting ice caps, raging wildfires, flooded cities, and devastated ecosystems. However, these images are no longer only pictures. The consequences of climate change are slowly becoming visible: farmers face challenges in their everyday work and food insecurity is increasing at an alarming rate. Because of changing environmental conditions, traditional agricultural practices may no longer be viable. This means that we need to change and adapt the way we produce our food.  

Last mandate 

Soil, seeds, and water are crucial resources to produce food. It does not come as a surprise that the EU has exactly chosen these three topics as the focal points for drafting new policies regarding climate-resilient agriculture. The last mandate, the European Commission, which is responsible for drafting new legislative proposals, has published two proposals along this line: the EU Soil Monitoring Law and the proposal on New Genomic Techniques. While some regulatory frameworks concentrate on implementing measures for farmlands, these legislative initiatives provide farmers with innovative tools and data-driven solutions to achieve nitrogen reduction targets.  

Still in progress 

The proposals on climate-resilient farming have been adopted by the European Parliament, but they are currently under discussion in the European Council, which consists of representatives from each member state. The adoption of the file of New Genomic Techniques is currently on hold because of a discussion patents - a topic that was originially not even part of the Commission's proposal. The polls indicate that we will have a right-wing or an extreme right-wing parliament, which might not prioritize sustainability measures. While regulations for climate-resilient agriculture have been adopted, there remains the possibility for the European Union to amend or, in the worst-case scenario, withdraw these proposals. We do not believe the situation is as bleak, but the political color of the Parliament will decide what the future holds for climate-resilience farming.  

A beneficial paradox 

The Green Deal not only has negative implications for farmers, which have been emphasised by the recent protests, but it also incorporates measures that equip them with tools and methods to make their work and farmland climate-resilient for the future. With the EU Soil Monitoring Law, the EU will collect and evaluate data across member states every five years for scientific insights to improve soil health. New Genomic Techniques, on the other hand, will help farmers and scientists to create plants and seeds that will be more resistant to diseases and resilient to climate change. These seeds may potentially enable agriculture in areas such as the desert.  

Some suggest expanding the Emission Trading System (ETS) to include agriculture to cut emissions. However, this idea may clash with concerns over food security, geopolitics, and administrative burdens on farmers. The new EU leadership needs a cohesive vision on agriculture.

The European Commission, responsible for drafting new legislation, commissioned a report in 2023 on the possibilities of controlling agricultural emissions through a rights system. The title of the report was: "Pricing agricultural emissions and rewarding climate action in the agri-food value chain."  It outlines various options for further steering emissions within the agricultural sector. The Paris Agreement stipulates that Europe must achieve net climate neutrality by 2050. Agriculture in Europe accounts for approximately 11% of total greenhouse gas emissions within Europe. While there has been a reduction of about 15% over the past 30 years, this trend has stabilized in recent years. Hence, suggestions have been made from various quarters to create new incentives to increase the sector's contribution to emissions reduction.  

A solution?   

Expanding the existing Emission Trading System (ETS) (which is currently only applicable to the energy-intensive sectors, the maritime and aviation sectors) to the agricultural sector is seen as a possible solution. This system, through standardizing and pricing emissions, could lead to lower emissions within the sector by creating scarcity. The report outlines various implementation options for this system.   

However, a conclusion is that all options entail a high degree of complexity and administrative burden due to the diversity and number of farms in Europe. This stands in contrast to recent attempts to actually reduce the administrative burden of the agricultural sector. The report also discusses the complexity regarding the distribution of financial burdens that standardization entails and who should bear them in the chain. An ETS relies on a vast amount of validated data with a proper infrastructure and assurance which currently does not exist everywhere in the agricultural sector.  

Consensus  

These technical challenges are further complicated by the current political situation. In recent months, discussions in Brussels have often revolved around reducing administrative burdens on farmers and the necessity of food security within the European Union. At the same time, there is broad consensus on the urgency of taking action to combat climate change, while many of these measures have led to increased polarization. In short, various interests and a lack of a future-proof framework for decision-making.  

A long-term perspective  

It is a complex puzzle of interests where a simple solution does not exist. For the future of a sustainable agricultural system in Europe, it is essential to think with a long-term perspective. With the European elections approaching, it will be interesting to see the signals given by the politicians and how the dynamics will unfold. The next five years will be crucial in terms of implementing measures to address the aforementioned challenges.  

There is political support for each of the themes mentioned, but what does the combined picture look like? After the European elections, we will know the new composition of the Parliament and see the direction in which Europe as a whole will move. 

Sustainable agriculture concepts are mostly serving niche markets. Changes in the mainstream food production are needed to have a truly sustainable food system.

Laying hens with space to walk outside, potatoes from acres with flowering field edges, and dairy from farmers who are actively contributing to the protection of meadow birds. These are just a couple of examples of sustainability concepts in the agricultural sector, often serving a relatively small niche of customers.  

Clear vision 

Although these concepts are important, changes in mainstream food production beyond niches are needed to respond accurately to climate change, biodiversity loss, and water pollution. For a regenerative and truly sustainable agricultural sector, supply chain partners must act together. A clear vision of sustainable food systems is needed.  

Upstream companies, such as livestock producers or arable farmers, and their suppliers, such as feed companies or the suppliers of agri-inputs, are facing more and more demands from downstream companies in the area of sustainability. These demands can be a great incentive to boost sustainability, but this is only effective if these demands are aligned and if extra efforts are rewarded. 

A clear vision with a new framework

However, when individual downstream actors throw their demands over the fence, the risk exists that this causes serious problems to upstream players, for instance when they are faced with multiple conflicting requirements. This can effectively block progress and take away the appetite for sustainability measures.  

In light of the Green Deal, a proposal for a legislative framework for sustainable food systems (FSFS) was announced. This framework would bring a clear vision of sustainable agriculture, in a responsible and fair food chain. However, until now, it has been quiet around this proposal. And that is a pity.  

Farmers on the street 

We see farmers on the streets in Brussels and European countries like the Netherlands and France. Farmers are frustrated about the legal uncertainty and the lack of a long-term vision for agriculture within the food system. In addition, there is no clear vision of a sustainable food system.  

Too often we do still observe that agriculture and food are discussed as separate topics in separate silos, each with its own stakeholders. A framework for a sustainable food system is an opportunity to break through these silos and create an overarching vision. Therefore, after the elections, the new European Parliament and Commission have an important but complex task and duty to connect food and agriculture and develop a holistic vision of our food system.